The 2024 Presidential Election: What to Watch For and What to Expect

November 5th, 2024

The 2024 Presidential Election: What to Watch For and What to Expect (From the Talking About Politics Series)

We know three things about the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election: (1) it will be very close, (2) it will be very important, and (3) it is very likely to be turbulent. So, during this period of intense partisan polarization, misinformation and extreme rhetoric, and uncertainty about the resilience and fairness of the American electoral system, what should we be paying attention to?

Political science professors Rich Holtzman and Tristan Hightower discuss what is most important to watch for in the presidential election and what to expect from the candidates and the process in the “Talking About Politics” discussion held on November 1, 2024. 

View recording here: https://bryant.hosted.panopto.com/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=303c4cdb-cd4e-4f7e-8653-b21b0120dab9 

Polling

Can We Trust The Polls-Independent UK https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/polls-harris-trump-election-trust-how-b2634619.html 

Five Thirty Eight

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ 

Predicting Elections

http://bryant.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=103271623&site=ehost-live 

Electoral College

How the Electoral College Works 

US Election Assistance Commission: https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2024-04/Electoral_College_1_Pager_508.pdf 

National Archives: https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/about 

https://www.270towin.com/ 

 

Voting Districts

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/allocation#:~:text=Electoral%20votes%20are%20allocated%20among,number%20of%20its%20Congressional%20districts

Statista - Number of electoral college electors received by each party in presidential elections in the United States from 1904 to 2020

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077282/wining-political-party-us-presidential-elections/ 

Electoral Count Act 2022 https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/4573#:~:text=Reported%20to%20Senate%20(10%2F18%2F2022),-Electoral%20Count%20Reform&text=This%20bill%20revises%20the%20process,to%20the%20presidential%20transition%20process

Voter Turnout & Demographics

Pew Research Center: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/ 

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/changing-partisan-coalitions-in-a-politically-divided-nation/

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/demographic-profiles-of-republican-and-democratic-voters/

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/25/how-voters-expect-harris-and-trumps-policies-to-affect-different-groups-in-society/

Voter Turnout- Statista

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139251/voter-turnout-in-us-presidential-and-midterm-elections/ 

Gender: 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1096291/voter-turnout-presidential-elections-by-gender-historical/ 

Ethnicity: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1096113/voter-turnout-presidential-elections-by-ethnicity-historical/ 

Black Male Shift to Republican https://www.npr.org/2024/10/10/nx-s1-5133172/polls-suggest-republicans-are-making-gains-among-black-voters-especially-black-men 

Age https://www.brookings.edu/articles/younger-voters-are-poised-to-play-their-part-in-deciding-this-years-election/ 

Gen Z Media Consumption https://www.statista.com/topics/10794/gen-z-media-consumption-in-the-united-states/#editorsPicks 

NPR How The Internet, Social Media, And Podcasts Are Impacting The 2024 Election   https://www.npr.org/2024/10/10/1210938545/1a-10-10-2024 

Disinformation 

New York Times- As Election Looms, Disinformation ‘Has Never Been Worse’: http://bryant.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/blogs-podcasts-websites/as-election-looms-disinformation-has-never-been/docview/3119494214/se-2?accountid=36823 

Brookings

AI & Disinformation https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-do-artificial-intelligence-and-disinformation-impact-elections/ 

Election night disinformation risks https://www.brookings.edu/articles/election-night-disinformation-risks/

Election Fraud

Brennan Center https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/noncitizen-voting-missing-millions 

NPR https://www.npr.org/2024/10/12/nx-s1-5147789/voting-election-2024-noncitizen-fact-check-trump 

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-widespread-is-election-fraud-in-the-united-states-not-very/ 

Heritage Foundation https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud 

How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very  https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-widespread-is-election-fraud-in-the-united-states-not-very/

Loss of trust in elections

Pew Research Center https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/trend/archive/fall-2024/how-to-restore-trust-in-elections 

Voting Format

Election Day as a National Holiday

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-10-31/why-isn-t-us-election-day-a-federal-holiday 

Early Voting

https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/2024-early-vote-data-map-rcna177666 

Voting Safety

On what the government is doing to assure election security https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lawfare-podcast/id498897343?i=1000674983232

Election Mail Security-US Postal Office https://www.uspis.gov/election-mail-security 

Oregon Mail Voting https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/494189-lets-put-the-vote-by-mail-fraud-myth-to-rest/ 

US Dept of Justice: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-releases-information-efforts-protect-right-vote-prosecute-election-0 

Domestic Violence and Voting Safety: https://www.americanprogress.org/article/obstacles-voting-survivors-intimate-partner-violence/ 

Freedom to Vote Act: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2747 

PBS Is it really ‘unlawful’ to replace Biden on the Democratic ticket? Election law experts say no

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/is-it-really-unlawful-to-replace-biden-on-the-democratic-ticket-election-law-experts-say-no 

Undecided voters

https://now.tufts.edu/2024/10/18/how-will-undecided-voters-affect-presidential-election 

No Time to Fail Documentary PBS https://www.pbs.org/video/no-time-to-fail-wmdnou/ 

See related discussion:

Talking About Politics “Congress: As Bad As It Looks?” https://library.bryant.edu/talking-about-politics-congress-bad-it-looks 

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