The 2024 Presidential Election: What to Watch For and What to Expect (From the Talking About Politics Series)
We know three things about the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election: (1) it will be very close, (2) it will be very important, and (3) it is very likely to be turbulent. So, during this period of intense partisan polarization, misinformation and extreme rhetoric, and uncertainty about the resilience and fairness of the American electoral system, what should we be paying attention to?
Political science professors Rich Holtzman and Tristan Hightower discuss what is most important to watch for in the presidential election and what to expect from the candidates and the process in the “Talking About Politics” discussion held on November 1, 2024.
View recording here: https://bryant.hosted.panopto.com/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=303c4cdb-cd4e-4f7e-8653-b21b0120dab9
Polling
Can We Trust The Polls-Independent UK https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/polls-harris-trump-election-trust-how-b2634619.html
Five Thirty Eight
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Predicting Elections
Electoral College
How the Electoral College Works
US Election Assistance Commission: https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2024-04/Electoral_College_1_Pager_508.pdf
National Archives: https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/about
Voting Districts
Statista - Number of electoral college electors received by each party in presidential elections in the United States from 1904 to 2020
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077282/wining-political-party-us-presidential-elections/
Electoral Count Act 2022 https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/4573#:~:text=Reported%20to%20Senate%20(10%2F18%2F2022),-Electoral%20Count%20Reform&text=This%20bill%20revises%20the%20process,to%20the%20presidential%20transition%20process.
Voter Turnout & Demographics
Pew Research Center: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/
Voter Turnout- Statista
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139251/voter-turnout-in-us-presidential-and-midterm-elections/
Gender:
Black Male Shift to Republican https://www.npr.org/2024/10/10/nx-s1-5133172/polls-suggest-republicans-are-making-gains-among-black-voters-especially-black-men
Gen Z Media Consumption https://www.statista.com/topics/10794/gen-z-media-consumption-in-the-united-states/#editorsPicks
NPR How The Internet, Social Media, And Podcasts Are Impacting The 2024 Election https://www.npr.org/2024/10/10/1210938545/1a-10-10-2024
Disinformation
New York Times- As Election Looms, Disinformation ‘Has Never Been Worse’: http://bryant.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/blogs-podcasts-websites/as-election-looms-disinformation-has-never-been/docview/3119494214/se-2?accountid=36823
Brookings
AI & Disinformation https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-do-artificial-intelligence-and-disinformation-impact-elections/
Election night disinformation risks https://www.brookings.edu/articles/election-night-disinformation-risks/
Election Fraud
Brennan Center https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/noncitizen-voting-missing-millions
NPR https://www.npr.org/2024/10/12/nx-s1-5147789/voting-election-2024-noncitizen-fact-check-trump
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-widespread-is-election-fraud-in-the-united-states-not-very/
Heritage Foundation https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud
How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-widespread-is-election-fraud-in-the-united-states-not-very/
Loss of trust in elections
Pew Research Center https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/trend/archive/fall-2024/how-to-restore-trust-in-elections
Voting Format
Election Day as a National Holiday
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-10-31/why-isn-t-us-election-day-a-federal-holiday
Early Voting
https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/2024-early-vote-data-map-rcna177666
Voting Safety
On what the government is doing to assure election security https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lawfare-podcast/id498897343?i=1000674983232
Election Mail Security-US Postal Office https://www.uspis.gov/election-mail-security
Oregon Mail Voting https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/494189-lets-put-the-vote-by-mail-fraud-myth-to-rest/
US Dept of Justice: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-releases-information-efforts-protect-right-vote-prosecute-election-0
Domestic Violence and Voting Safety: https://www.americanprogress.org/article/obstacles-voting-survivors-intimate-partner-violence/
Freedom to Vote Act: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2747
PBS Is it really ‘unlawful’ to replace Biden on the Democratic ticket? Election law experts say no
Undecided voters
https://now.tufts.edu/2024/10/18/how-will-undecided-voters-affect-presidential-election
No Time to Fail Documentary PBS https://www.pbs.org/video/no-time-to-fail-wmdnou/
See related discussion:
Talking About Politics “Congress: As Bad As It Looks?” https://library.bryant.edu/talking-about-politics-congress-bad-it-looks